Brent crude stayed above $100 a barrel on Friday, 2 October, after jumping more than 4% on Thursday, when China halted fuel exports and the US was reported to be sending a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Diesel is the tightest part of the market, and Asian shares slipped as investors waited for US jobs data after a week of sharp swings in bonds and currencies.

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Before leaving the White House for a campaign trip on Thursday, 1 October, President Donald Trump told reporters he was weighing his options on Iran. “Now I have to make a decision. They'll either sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer,” Trump said.

The same day, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East as Trump weighed resuming strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, and Chinese refiners suspended oil product exports to protect stocks at home. Brent crude settled at $102.31 a barrel, up 4.37%, and US West Texas Intermediate rose 2.71% to $92.87.

Prices eased on Friday, 2 October, as traders looked at signs that Middle Eastern supply is recovering. Brent was down 0.7% at $101.61 by 0635 GMT and WTI fell 0.9% to $92.02, leaving both on course for a weekly decline.

“The market is taking stock of a distinctly mixed set of signals this week,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, who described traders as “simply taking a breather” after a disruptive Thursday. “A healthier-looking Saudi export picture is being offset by reports of another US aircraft carrier heading toward the Gulf and by China's decision to curb refined product exports.”

Diesel is Where the Shortage Bites

Crude is still reaching buyers, but diesel and other refined fuels are scarce after damage to refineries in the Gulf and Russia. Russia, one of the biggest diesel exporters, has banned exports through October, and President Vladimir Putin said on 1 October that Russia will not supply diesel to world markets until sanctions on Moscow are lifted. Industry participants expect the shortage to last into next year.

China’s move adds to the strain, with its refiners now holding back exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, according to four people familiar with the matter.

“The impact of China’s fuel export restrictions will not be as large as the loss of Russian and Middle Eastern refined oil product exports. However, it is another source of stress on global fuel markets when supply is severely constrained,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

Washington Leans on Europe’s Diesel Stocks

The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories or face a possible US ban on diesel exports, according to three people close to the discussions. One source said the US has asked the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel over six months. EU countries hold nearly 109 million tons of emergency crude and fuel stocks, and the bloc’s energy taskforce was due to meet on Friday, 2 October to discuss a release.

Gulf Supply Recovers, but the Risks Have not Gone Away

Saudi Arabia resumed loading tankers at Yanbu on Tuesday, 29 September, after restarting its East-West Pipeline, and Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports, including ships sailing with their transponders switched off, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day last week, in line with their 2025 average. Analysts polled by Reuters have raised their average 2026 Brent forecast to $89.05 a barrel.

The same day the Saudi loadings resumed, three Liberian-flagged tankers were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the shipping intelligence service Marisks, and Iran is preparing a harder response if the US resumes large-scale attacks, according to sources. Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, said $100 a barrel has become a psychological threshold for traders and that the market is “increasingly pricing a world where supply chains remain vulnerable for longer.”

“The more immediate concern is the availability and movement of Middle Eastern crude and refined products to the rest of the world,” said Sachdeva.

Asian Shares Slip as Bond Markets Swing

Asian shares fell on 2 October as investors dealt with sharp moves in bonds and currencies ahead of the September US jobs report. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.3% and was heading for a 1.5% weekly loss, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.1% but was still up 2.8% on the week, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 2.6% after a holiday. Mainland Chinese markets are closed for a holiday until 7 October.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% earlier in the week, its highest in 24 years, after its biggest quarterly rise in 32 years, before easing to about 5.25%. Economists expect the jobs report to show 90,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.1%. A strong number could revive bets on a second Federal Reserve rate increase this month, which traders now put at 25% after two senior Fed officials said they wanted more data, and high fuel prices keep inflation risks in the picture.

“With the Fed now myopically focused on inflation and price pressures, a hot wages print could prove particularly influential for US rates, Treasuries and the USD,” said Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone.

In Europe, fiscal worries pushed the gap between French and German bond yields above 140 basis points, the widest since 2012, and the euro fell to $1.1250, its lowest since May 2025. The jobs report is due before Wall Street opens, and all prices in this story are as of publication.

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