Space stocks have moved sharply in both directions since SpaceX’s record June listing, losing much of their value over the summer before recovering in September on new analyst coverage. For investors in the UAE and the US, the focus is shifting from whether the commercial space economy is viable to how companies such as SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile and Abu Dhabi-listed Space42 should be valued.

[For more news, click here]

When SpaceX priced its shares at $135 on June 11, the offering valued the rocket and satellite company at roughly $1.77 trillion and raised $75 billion, making it the largest initial public offering on record. Within days the stock reached an intraday high of $225.64, briefly lifting Elon Musk’s company above Amazon and Microsoft by market value. By late August, the shares were trading close to the offering price.

That round trip has come to define the year for publicly listed space companies. According to eToro, space stocks lost roughly half their value on average over the summer, before more bullish analyst coverage in early September renewed interest in the sector. For investors in New York and Abu Dhabi, the part that matters is about how much of its future is already reflected in share prices.

Analyst Coverage Drives a September Rebound

The most visible catalyst came on September 2, when Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov initiated coverage of AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Planet Labs with Buy ratings. AST SpaceMobile, the Texas-based company building a satellite network designed to connect directly to unmodified smartphones, rose close to 12% in the session after Berenberg set a $92 price target. Berenberg’s view is that AST’s model works alongside carriers such as Verizon and AT&T rather than competing with them.

The longer-term driver is the falling cost of reaching orbit as reusable rockets, brought to commercial scale by SpaceX’s Falcon 9, have made satellite constellations and frequent test flights, once largely limited to government agencies, viable for private operators. Launch remains a significant expense for smaller companies. AST SpaceMobile pays SpaceX an estimated $55 million to $65 million per mission, according to MarketBeat, and raised $1 billion in convertible notes in July partly to reduce its reliance on third-party launch providers.

Government and Defence Contracts Underpin the Commercial Case

Nagham Hassan, MENA Market Analyst at eToro, points to the contract book as the clearest difference between this cycle and the more speculative wave of space listings several years ago. Recent awards give that argument substance. On September 1, NASA selected Blue Origin, the company founded by Jeff Bezos, to build its Mars Telecommunications Network under a firm-fixed-price contract worth up to about $700 million. The orbiter is due for delivery by the end of 2028, with the network expected to operate by 2030.

Rocket Lab signed a $190 million block buy in March for 20 hypersonic test flights on its HASTE vehicle under the Pentagon’s MACH-TB 2.0 programme, the largest launch contract in its history, lifting its total backlog above $2 billion. AST SpaceMobile has agreements with more than 60 mobile network operators and has reported a backlog of about $1.3 billion.

The pattern follows earlier cycles in defence and telecommunications, where government customers arrived first and commercial scale followed. These contracts provide identifiable revenue, although they do not on their own account for current valuations.

Are Space Stocks Overvalued?

Valuation remains the central question. SpaceX traded at roughly 112 times its prior-year revenue at the end of its first week as a public company, according to CNBC, and its business now spans launch, the Starlink broadband service and xAI, which it acquired in February. AST SpaceMobile reported $31.5 million in second-quarter revenue alongside a net loss of $230.9 million, and analysts expect full-year cash burn of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion as it builds out its BlueBird constellation.

“When a company is valued on the assumption of a near-perfect future, even positive developments may not be enough to meet market expectations. That helps explain why space stocks can experience such significant moves in both directions. Investors are not necessarily questioning whether the industry has a future, but rather how much of that future should already be reflected in today’s valuations,” said Nagham Hassan, MENA Market Analyst at eToro.

As a result, operational progress and share price performance do not always move together. A contract win can still prompt selling if expectations were higher, while a single analyst initiation can move a loss-making stock by double digits in one session.

Space42 Gives UAE Investors Exposure to the Space Economy

For UAE investors, the space theme now has a local listing on the ADX. Space42, formed in 2024 through the merger of Bayanat and Yahsat, has outperformed the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and risen by more than 50% since mid-March, according to eToro. Its first-half results showed revenue up 15% to $260 million, net profit of $18 million, normalised EBITDA of $116 million and a contracted backlog of $6.3 billion, much of it underpinned by long-term government work, including a $700 million, 15-year capacity agreement tied to the Thuraya-4 satellite.

The company’s financial profile differs from its US peers where Space42 is profitable, holds more than $1.1 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and has secured ADX approval for a buyback of up to 2.5% of its shares, which management said reflects its view that the stock is undervalued. Its direct-to-device plans are at an earlier and narrower stage. Working with Skylo, it has tested SMS and SOS messaging to standard phones through Thuraya-4, with commercial rollout expected by the end of 2026, while a separate venture with Viasat, Equatys, targets broader 5G satellite connectivity.

The combination of contracted government revenue and exposure to satellite-to-smartphone services sets Space42 apart from the pre-profit companies that make up much of the US space sector.

What Should Investors Watch Next in Space Stocks?

Several developments could influence sentiment in the coming months, including the first staggered lock-up expiries for SpaceX’s pre-IPO investors, which begin 180 days after the June listing, AST SpaceMobile’s next BlueBird launches, and further civil and defence procurement decisions in Washington. Each will indicate whether revenue is growing at the pace current prices assume.

“The commercial space sector is becoming increasingly real, supported by lower launch costs, government and private-sector contracts, and new applications ranging from communications to defence,” Hassan added. “The volatility we are seeing is the market trying to determine the right price for that opportunity, and that process is unlikely to move in a straight line.”

Related Articles

SpaceX Unveils Starbase Louisiana, a $100 Billion Spaceport Project

ICEYE Appoints UAE Chief Executive as Sovereign Space Intelligence Expands into the Gulf

Pixxel Raises $100 Million, the Largest Space Tech Round in India’s History